July 16-31

Details

• While discussing what will guide the world agenda in the second half of July, Russia announces withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative Agreement. The event, which had a wide global echo, suddenly turned all eyes to the United Nations and Turkey. Minister Fidan gave a strategic response, saying that both sides should be listened and there can be no solution without Russia at the table. The food security problem that is emerging in the world is expected to increase gradually with the cancellation of the agreement. Serious problems await the African Continent, which is heavily dependent on Ukrainian’s grain. The possible increase in grain prices is expected to trigger many problems globally.

• While it is being discussed that grain shipments will be disrupted in Ukraine and will threaten global food security, news has come that India will also ban rice exports. It was stated that 75% of rice exports in the country will be affected after the ban and it will also stop the sale of grain overseas. The fact that India alone accounts for 40% of global rice exports shows the scale of the danger. India, which has increased rice production by almost 40% since 2010, is the second largest rice producer in the world after China. Rice is one of the most consumed cereals in the world, while the most consumed regions are Southeast Asia and Africa. Countries in this region are more than 50% dependent on India for rice imports. We will see in the coming days how the export ban will affect these countries.

• Another important development this month was the NATO’s Vilnius Summit. At the end of the summit, many experts evaluated the summit and made various comments. When Zelensky returned empty-handed from the meeting, where he went with high hopes, he criticized NATO on the grounds that “there is no plan schedule for membership”. US President Biden announced that Ukraine cannot become a member until the war is completely over. While Finland looked happy at the summit, which it attended for the first time as a member, Turkey's giving the green light to Sweden's membership caused excitement among the alliance members. It was emphasized that the Baltic Region, which was once seen as Moscow's hegemony, is now NATO's territory.

• The problems in housing construction in Europe continue to increase. Ludwig, a construction expert at the IFO Institute, said that movements in interest rates, increases in construction service and cost, and medium-term price uncertainty have put the sector in trouble. A negative picture was seen in some parts of Europe in housing construction, and a positive one in some. As a matter of fact, the number of completed houses decreased significantly in Sweden, Denmark, Germany and Hungary, while they increased in Portugal, Spain, Slovakia and Ireland.

• Has a recession started on a global scale? Another topic discussed during this period was whether the global recession had started or not. While the annual growth rate of global import volume is negative, it is also expected to be negative at the end of 2023. Global growth is expected to be %2,3 this year, while this rate is expected to be lower next year.

• China entered into a strict closure mode with severe isolation measures during the Covid period and affected global dynamics. The restrictions lifted when the virus lost its effect suggested that a good economic growth environment would be formed in China. But incoming data showed that the economic recovery in China remains weak. In 2023, GDP followed a good course in the first quarter, while it could grow by only %0,8 in the second quarter. The troubled process in China is continuing due to households changing their consumption habits and investors reducing their investments.

• Baykar production domestic unmanned aerial vehicles continue to take place on the world agenda. Our UAV’s, which previously played an important role in the Nagorno–Karabakh war, have also shown how important a tool they are in the Ukrainian war. Currently, our country has contributed to the technological development of UAVs by constantly using these vehicles in its own border operations. Our negotiations with various countries are continuing for the sale of UAVs, which we have sold about 29 abroad countries.